People, Personalities, and Power in a Context of Climate Change: Highlighting Parenti's Concept of "Catastrophic Convergence"

OVERVIEW: 

DEFINING OUR WORLD 
IN THE CONTEXT OF THE EARTH


"The world is in terrible shape now," or so goes the thinking of many of our best minds, today.  Of course, as the historical record has amply demonstrated, human beings have been decrying "the end of the world" ever since there have been humans living in complex societies.  There is a growing body of scientific evidence, however, to indicate that perhaps this time it's real.  What do I mean by this?  What do I mean by "the end of the world?"  

A few definitions, and a few clarification of terms, are also in order.  "The World," as I define this seemingly all-encompassing term here, consists of the world of human beings.  It consists of all that we interact with: the physical, the psychological, the spiritual, etc.  It encompasses all that we know and do, writ large, over the course of long stretches of history.  "The Earth," as I define it here, consists of all the physical and bio-chemical properties of the Earth, needed to sustain life in general (and human life in particular).  "The World" and "the Earth" have a high degree overlap; yet, they are two distinct things.  For our purposes here, think of the World of human beings as being housed within the larger system that is the Earth.  

Human beings, of late, have been engaging in a number of different short-term physical activities which have, over time, altered the medium- to long-term physical processes of the Earth.  Said another way, the world of human beings has been interfering with a number of the life-sustaining properties of the Earth.   This has now happened to such a degree (over the last 300 years, in particular) that the climatic period which has given rise to civilization (and recorded human history) as we have known it has now technically ended.  The Holocene Era (the uniquely stable climatic features that gave rise to human agriculture over the past 10 to 12 thousand years) is now over.  That means the end of the world as we've known it.  But what are the implications of that?  


First and foremost, that means that there will be lots of disruption in our physical space, worldwide.  Ergo, there will subsequently be lots of disruption in our social and psychic space, worldwide.  In simple terms, as a precious item like fresh water becomes ever more scarce, human beings will likely become ever more aggressive in their determination to procure it.  Ditto every other resource that humans value.  In this sense, then, the climate crisis is also a sociological crisis.  And it is that delicate linkage between climate and society that author Christian Parenti skillfully addresses in his new book.      

Parenti, Christian. (2011). Tropic of Chaos: Climate Change and the New Geography of Violence.  

Christian Parenti elaborates on the current state of affairs, socially, in relation to our emerging climate crisis, in his new book, Tropic of Chaos.  He has written a solid tour de force on environmentally-induced conflict, worldwide, as seen from within the first decade of the 21^st century.  Indeed, the book title itself—Tropic of Chaos—is derived from the names of the geo-climatic zone situated between the Tropic of Capricorn and the Tropic of Cancer.  

Tropic Zone + Climate Change + Resource Shortage = Tropic of Chaos

Figure 1: The tropics (also referred to as "the tropical zone" and "the torrid zone").  This is a region of the Earth surrounding the Equator (shown in the pink band, above). It is bounded by the line known as Tropic of Cancer in the northern hemisphere, and the Tropic of Capricorn in the southern hemisphere.  Due to climate change ("global warming"), the total area of the Earth's surface included in the tropical zone is actually now expanding.  What that means, in turn, is that  many of the delicate ecosystems beyond the tropics are now being disrupted, as this warm belt around the Earth slowly envelopes them, growing ever wider with the passage of time.  Over 40 percent of the world's human population currently lives within this zone.  




Just as these geo-climatic zones are now slowly spreading north and south, respectively, so too is human-induced violence and destruction.  Hence, part of the reason for the spreading nature of the “chaos,” as more and more people engage in Malthusian-style competition for fewer and fewer natural resources.   


Michael Parenti provides an on-the-ground, first person description of what this actually feels like for a few of those individuals caught up in these struggles.  He then works backwards, to explain some of the history and “back story” behind these disruptive events.  In other words, he helps to explain we are seeing some of what we typical see on those brief cable TV news clips.  Those are the news pieces typically showing decontextualized scenes of "religious strife," or "tribal violence," or "violence against women," or "drug wars," etc.  Parenti's work provides an important missing link in that back story, helping to explain how some of these people arrived at their present condition.   Some of that back story is not just a tale of ecology and the environment; it is also a tale of politics, economics, and history.     

Figure 2: The regime of Emperor Haile Selassie I, of Ethiopia, was an earlier example of a regime to fall under the impact of what Parenti has called “the catastrophic convergence” (for definition, see below).  In the case of Ethiopia, in 1974, it was the combined synergistic impact of a severe energy crunch in tandem with an acute food shortage.  In many respects, Ethiopia under Selassie represents a kind of sociological template for what large swaths of the Global South could soon be facing. 

SUMMARY AND DESCRIPTION: SETTING THE CONTEXT

In the spirit of works like Robert Kaplan’s 1994 article, “The Coming Anarchy,” or Dobkowski and Wallimann’s 1998 book, TheComing Age of Scarcity, or Jane Jacobs' 2004 book, Dark Age Ahead, Parenti provides us with the current state of the art in the collapse of the environment, taking place at the end of the Holocene era, and unpacks what that now means in terms of both international and regional security.  The most poignant difference between Parenti’s current work and these earlier works from the 1990s is that these long-anticipated catastrophes are no longer simply “coming.”  They have now “arrived,” for anyone to see, more or less on schedule.  In this regard, Parenti’s Tropic of Chaos, provides us with a vivid and disturbing snapshot of where things now stand, as of the early 21^st century. 

Parenti divides his work into four parts, the first of which is thematic, the remaining three are geographic: Part I—Last Call for Illusions; Part II—Africa; Part III—Asia; and Part IV—Latin America.  Within that first section, Last Call for Illusions, Parenti sets the stage for all that is to follow.  Here, he effectively establishes the intellectual (and emotional) rhythm for the subsequent unfolding of this thesis. On this, he writes:

I examine the prehistories of the climate disaster in order to explain how the world came to be such a mess and, thus, so prone to respond to climate change in ways that exacerbate the social fallout of the new extreme weather . . . .  It seems that the only solidarity forthcoming  in response to climate change is an exclusionary tribalism . . . .  This is not ‘natural’ and inevitable but rather the result of a history—particularly the history of the global North’s abuse of the global South . . .  (p. 8)

Here, early on, the author sets up the epistemic framework for the rest of the book.  He combines, in a highly interdisciplinary way, basic environmental science, political-economy, and world history, together with a bit of personal biography.  This is then put together with a kind of true grit, on-the-ground, first person narrative describing the impact of climate change on the lives of real human beings living in real places, in different parts of the world.  In the interest of full disclosure, inasmuch as this reviewer has also worked and/or lived in a few of the places discussed by Perenti as well, it was particularly interesting to effectively get an “update report” on how some of these places have been faring.    

Figure 3: Children run through floodwater at one of the Dadaab refugee camps, in northern Kenya, supported by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.  Many of these people initially sought refuge from drought-induced physical insecurity (drought plus violence).  I personally visited this UNHCR camp complex, in the early 1990s.  An entirely new generation of camp residents has since grown up there now.  What does future portend for these children and their parents?  Source: UNHCR,http://www.unhcr.org/4b2b76a79.html. 

Within Part I of his book, the writer also introduces the concept he calls the “catastrophic convergence.”  This he describes as the “collision of political, economic, and environmental disaster.”  Moreover, it is not just multiple disasters stacked atop one another; rather, it is the combined or synergistic effect they produce when they converge that must also be considered.   Combined, their multiplied destructive impact is seen as greater that the simple arithmetic sum of their parts.  He then proceeds, section by section, chapter by chapter, to describe how the catastrophic convergence has manifested itself in one part of the world after another. 

ANALYSIS: WHAT WE SEE RELATES TO HOW WE THINK ( . . . AND VICE-VERSA)

There are many regional experts on this or that part of the world; and there are likewise many different types of experts in various aspects of environmental studies and/or ecology.  It is often difficult, however, to find an individual or a book that presents a strong grasp of both regional political-economic or historical issues, together with global environmental issues.   This is precisely the strength of Christian Parenti’s work in Tropic of Chaos.  He is literally able to circle the globe, drawing upon his own first-hand experience, to discuss the state of environmental security, and its impact on selected societies, worldwide.


This issue has now become so acute that the US Department of Defense has been conducting studies on the impact of climate change on US national security.  Many Defense Department studies have already concluded the following: anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change is real; climate change will alter national boundaries and will therefore result in significant population shifts; climate change poses a significant risk to a number of different US military activities and bases around the world; climate change is, therefore, a significant national security threat.  Much of the US public does not yet realize this, however; thanks to work done by the pro-fossil fuel network.  In this sense, it appears that the pro-fossil fuel lobby has seemingly been more effective at capturing (or at least confusing) the hearts and minds of the US electorate than than DoD.  Parenti's work provides lay readers with a first look (a kind of early warning for beginners) as to what some of these security threats look like.      

Tropic of Chaos is written in such a way that, after reading Part I, the reader need not necessarily read the subsequent sections of the book in sequential order, although this is probably still advised.  The reason being that the writer has written a conclusion to the final part of the book, labeled Latin America.  This helps in driving his basic points home.  In this regard, it might have been helpful to include a Part V, which focused purely on “conclusions,” as such.  However, this is at best a minor critique in presentation, in an otherwise strong body work.

ANALYSIS: "IN ORDER TO SAVE THEM WE HAD TO STEREOTYPE THEM" 
(BAD AFRICANS, TRULY TERRIBLE AFRICANS, AND "THE WORST" AFRICANS)

One other critique, at the level of concept development or worldview, is worth noting however.  In the section labeled Part II—Africa, the writer concentrates his work on East Africa.  This is a dynamic part of the world which this reviewer knows fairly well—after several years of living, working, and/or studying there.  Of course, it is difficult for most western writers to cover East African post-independence history, at not address the terrible events that took place in Uganda during the reign of General Idi Amin Dada, during the 1970s.  Of this troubled period, Parenti writes:

Amin’s regime was marked by medieval savagery and modern weaponry.  At first his repression had a political logic: violence was directed toward specific socioeconomic ends and served the dominant economic interests.  But Amin was, ultimately, insane: a big, roly-poly, smiling cherubic, khaki-clad sociopath in charge of what had become one of sub-Saharan Africa’s largest armies.  The Ugandan state quickly became personalistic, clique ridden, peculating, bribe taking, and vicious.   (pp.73-74) 

 Figure 4: Idi Amin Dada, former Ugandan Head-of-State, and much maligned in the western media. 

Figure 5: Milton Obote.  He was Head-of-State before Idi Amin, was overthrown by Amin, and then later fought with an international coalition of forces to replace Amin, to become Head-of-State once again.  Tragically more people died under Obote’s tenure as Ugandan Head-of-State than under Amin.  This was not very well documented in the western press, however.  

This is an all-too-popular western political narrative of Uganda—aided and abetted by slickly produced, well-acted-yet-damning films like the 2006 production, The Last King of Scotland.[1]  A more recent example of this phenomenon would be the overnight sensation known as the Kony 2012 Campaign (see below).  

Figure 6: Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland (2006).  This was an excellent production about a dysfunctional African political regime.  

Figure 6: Kony 2012 promotional poster.  This poster promotes the short film documenting the infamous leader of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), Joseph Kony, of Uganda.  The film, which broke Internet download records, was not with its detractors, many of whom felt it was a gross oversimplification of the situation in eastern Africa, and in Uganda.  Notice the juxtaposition to other popular villains, Osama bin Laden and Adolf Hitler. Note the tagline at the bottom, “The Worst.”      

Sadly, this remains a distorted picture of a country long in need of a more nuanced re-framing in the western mind.  It is a little known fact (in the West, seemingly) that more Ugandans were actually killed by the security forces of Milton Obote’s Administration than that of Idi Amin’s.  Why?  The common perception among a number of Ugandan commentators is that, while there was brutality during the regimes of both Amin and Obote, Amin seemingly incurred the wrath of the West because of his more “flamboyant” or “confrontational” manner—especially in relation to Britain.  Obote, on the other hand, was seen as a western European and American “ally” in the region.  Ergo, Obote was seemingly subject to less western media scrutiny than Amin, as far as human right abuses were concerned.  


This theme of who and what gets covered, based on political and economic proximity to the West, is also a recurring theme of the new film, Crisis in the Congo (not yet released theatrically; but, a pre-release trailer can be found here).  For an excellent historical drama on the same topic, check out the 2000 Raoul Peck film, Lumumba.  Films such as these might also be viewed as a more nuanced, partial counter-points to the more simplistic and personality-driven perspective of Kony 2012.     

Again, it should be noted that while this might be an area in which this reviewer would take issue with the writer, regarding the portrayal of Idi Amin and Uganda, this still does not detract from the essence of the writer’s basic points on the environment in the region.  This is merely a brief cautionary tale, regarding the need to be ever vigilant—and ever willing to question—regarding “the prevailing narratives” on any given issue. 

 CONCLUSIONS: REASONS TO BE WARY, REASONS TO BE HOPEFUL

Christian Parenti has written a very good book, overall, which provides his readers with a global snapshot of the state of the environment in the early 21^st century.  It is highly readable and informative, even if somewhat disturbing or depressing in parts.   Indeed, this “slightly depressing factor” is also a testament to the quality of Parenti’s overall work: it can be difficult to strive to be a compassionate and conscious human being and not feel affected by the long litany of well documented enviro-catastrophies listed in Parenti’s book.  By the same token, for those who have actually worked in some aspect of this field, this is in many respects the stock-in-trade of the industry.  With each passing decade, working on behalf of environmental and/or political-economic sustainability (especially in many parts of the Third World) gradually begins to feel more and more like “battlefield medicine,” for many.   

The last chapter within Section IV of the book is entitled “Implications and Possibilities.”  Here, Parenti provides his readers with reasons to be both hopeful in their activism, and active in sustaining their sense of hopefulness.  He provides concrete examples of successful climate change mitigation activities currently being done in different parts of the world.  The projects he outlined being done in the West African states of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso were especially inspiring.  These were in the spirit of the work done by authors like Howard and Elizabeth Odum, in their 2001 book, A Prosperous Way Down, Richard Heinberg's 2004 book, Power Down, Leonardo DiCaprio's 2007 film, The 11th Hour.  Also in keeping with many other books on this theme, Parenti reiterates that these activities now need to be more broadly adapted and scaled up—rapidly.   This being due to the now-dire nature of the overall environmental crisis. 

  

Figure 7: The Late Dr. Wangari Maathai, also from East Africa, was the first environmentalist to win a NobelPrize.  She often linked her work in sustainable development to the need to address issues of violence in Africa, and around the world.  There has been no major blockbuster film depicting her life, as yet.   

 As has long been the norm in books of this genre, the sense of alarm also grows louder with each passing decade, if not each passing year.  As a result of this, questions that continue to run through Parenti’s book (seeming to constantly demand answers of the reader) are never far from the surface.  How much more damage can the biosphere sustain before irreversible damage is done?  Has a “tipping-point level of damage” (irreversible damage) been done already?  Should we now be focusing our scarce resources on disaster adaptation, instead of mitigation?   How will people survive in the future?

According to Christian Parenti, and many others, the Earth cannot sustain much more (if any more) ecological damage—without dire consequences for the human race.  While some degree of adaptation to environmental damage now appears inevitable, Parenti hammers home the point that mitigation remains essential.   On this point, Parenti writes, “Without mitigation, we run the very real risk of unleashing a process of self-fueling, runaway climate change to which there can be little successful adaptation” (p. 236).  

Figure 8: CO2 producing industrial processes are having a documented impact on global climate change.  Energy-rich countries like the United States have been slow to acknowledge this global impact in most public fora, however. 

There is one other point that should be noted about Parenti’s Tropic of Chaos: the author has actually been to the places about which he writes.  This may seem like a small point, but it is not.  Much of what passes for “policy analysis” or “social commentary” these days is written by armchair analysts and coffee shop commentators, with very little or no “field” experience.  Some of today’s most prominent writers will write on subjects or situations they themselves have not engaged directly.  This was clearly not the case here.  Christian Parenti, in developing this work, has gone the extra miles and kilometers to put himself directly into the circumstances about which he writes (and occasionally even putting himself in harm’s way), in order to deliver a better product.  This affords a priceless, first-hand perspective to the reader, which no amount of Internet searches on the part of the writer could replace.

Figure 9: Author of Tropic of Chaos, Dr. Christian Parenti.  After drawing their own inferences based on the work presented in his book, readers might be led to ask, "Will there even be time to write a sequel?"  

For those seeking to get a good, first-hand account of how climate change has been affecting global security at a number of different levels, Tropic of Chaos is well worth reading.  For those unsure of how climate change actually works and feels, in different parts of the world, this would also be a good book with which to start.  This is so because Parenti takes the time to metaphorically draw a “human face” atop the innumerable-but-often “cold” charts and graphs, so often used isolation to describe what is happening in the world.   One can only hope that Christian Parenti, and others like him, will not feel compelled to write too many more books like this one; this being due to a breakthrough on the current climate impasse.   Indeed, if Parenti is now even only half-way correct in his assessments, there may not be sufficient time to write many more books like this one.    

 

Blaine D. Pope

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[1] Indeed, as of this writing, the latest example of this negative African imagery—or what I will call “Idi Amin Syndrome”—would be the popular-if-controversial Kony 2012 campaign, produced by the US filmmaker Jason Russell.